In Short

• The world is only on track to double renewable energy capacity from 2022 levels, not to triple it.
• The largest emitters, including the United States, Canada, and Russia, are yet to revise their targets.
• China and South Africa are considering a revision in 2025.

Two years ago, at COP28 in Dubai, the target to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030 was agreed upon by nations; however, most countries have not updated their deliverables in this regard, notes a report.

The consensus reached then spurred the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Despite this, many are not aligned with what is generally viewed as the most impactful action taken in 2023 at COP28 to mitigate the impacts of the climate crisis. This misalignment and lack of progress are raising serious questions about whether the global objective can be met in time.

A report by Ember, a UK-based independent global energy think tank, studies the 2030 renewable capacity ambitions of 96 countries and the EU, which together, as of 2024, account for about 97% of global renewable capacity, 96% of electricity demand, and 96% of power sector emissions.

Read More: The Global Net Zero Movement: How Countries Are (and Aren’t) Getting There

National targets were sourced from a variety of official documents, including government strategies, projections, and plans, and are accurate as of July 2025.

Since COP28, only 22 countries have updated their pursuits. Among these, 16 countries expanded their renewable targets, while 6 countries downsized their goals. In the European Union, as part of finalising their National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs), 15 member states revised theirs, which seems to be a result of routine planning processes rather than a direct response to the COP28 commitment.

On the whole, the combined global total of national targets has only grown by 2% since November 2023, Ember said when it last assessed them. At present, nations are targeting 7.4 terawatts (TW) of renewable capacity by 2030, but the global tripling plan requires 11 TW—projecting a gap of 3.7 TW. This means the world is currently only on track to double renewable energy capacity from 2022 levels, rather than tripling it.

Nine of the 20 largest electricity-producing countries are yet to update their end goals, including major global economies such as the United States, Canada, Russia, and Türkiye. In the meantime, two BRICS nations, China and South Africa, might revise their national goals during 2025. A lack of commitment from the largest emitters is derailing global progress, the report says.

Dr. Katye Altieri‍, Electricity Analyst, Ember, said: "Nearly two years after the COP28 agreement, many countries have yet to reflect the tripling ambition in their national plans. The purpose of a national renewables target is less-so to force more renewables to be built, but rather to make sure they are built smarter.

"A target can help the government plan for the best place to build renewables and plan for grids and flexibility to integrate the renewables, and also to help companies invest in supply chains, making for a cheaper and more secure electricity system."

Also Read: Mining Industry Faces Tough Road to Net Zero Emissions

Stressing the need to double down on global climate goals, the report calls for clear and ambitious national targets to guide investments, prepare for energy system flexibility, and build energy security and economic opportunity. Without this in place, the world is unlikely to meet its target of tripling renewable capacity, as pledged at COP28.

Ends/

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Source: Ember