Takeaways

• Global clean-energy trade rose to $479 billion in 2025, rebounding despite tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty, according to BloombergNEF.
• Demand is increasingly driven by energy security concerns, especially in fuel-importing countries facing volatile fossil-fuel prices.
• While trade is growing, oversupply and uneven pricing trends continue to pressure manufacturers and reshape global supply chains.

Global clean-energy trade continued to expand in 2025, reaching $479 billion, even as tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and shifting industrial policies weighed on global markets, according to a new BloombergNEF report.

The findings, published in the Energy Transition Supply Chains 2026 report, show that shipments of key energy transition products rose by 1% year-on-year. While modest, the increase marked a recovery from a 7% decline recorded between 2023 and 2024.

Despite the reintroduction and revision of tariffs across several clean-tech sectors in the United States and policy uncertainty in other regions, cross-border trade in solar equipment, batteries, and electric vehicles proved more resilient than expected.

For governments and manufacturers, the trend highlights a structural shift: Clean-energy supply chains are no longer peripheral; they are now central to trade strategy, energy security, and industrial planning.

Read More: Clean Energy Demand to Surge by Decade's End, Says IEA

Energy Security Drives Demand Surge

BloombergNEF noted that global supply chains are being reshaped by rising geopolitical risk and fossil-fuel volatility. Conflict in the Middle East has pushed up oil and gas prices, increasing pressure on import-dependent economies across Asia and Africa.

In many of these markets, higher energy costs are accelerating the shift toward cleaner alternatives such as solar power, electric vehicles, and battery storage.

Historical patterns support this trend. Countries heavily reliant on fuel imports have consistently shown stronger clean-tech adoption during periods of fossil-fuel price shocks.

Pakistan offers a clear example. Following the surge in global fuel prices after Russia invaded Ukraine, solar module imports in the country jumped 189% in 2022 to $1 billion. By 2025, small-scale solar installations had reached a record 18.3 GW, driven by high electricity tariffs, LNG import costs, and recurring power shortages.

“As conflict in the Middle East persists, many markets are doubling down on the deployment of clean technology to improve their energy security and resilience,” said Antoine Vagneur-Jones, head of trade and supply chains at BloombergNEF.

Oversupply Continues to Shape the Market

Despite rising demand, clean-tech manufacturing remains heavily oversupplied. BloombergNEF estimates that global production capacity now exceeds demand by more than 200% across the clean-energy value chain.

This imbalance is largely driven by aggressive investment in China, but new manufacturing hubs are also emerging in Southeast Asia, India, Turkey, Egypt, and Ethiopia.

The oversupply is particularly visible in solar panels, batteries, and wind equipment. While this benefits buyers through lower costs, it is compressing margins for manufacturers and slowing the pace of price declines.

Prices Fall, But at a Slower Pace

Clean-tech prices continued to decline in 2025, though at a reduced rate. Battery pack prices fell from $118 per kilowatt-hour in 2024 to $108/kWh, but the drop was smaller than in previous years due to persistently high metal costs.

Solar prices also eased more slowly, partly due to rising silver prices. Meanwhile, wind turbine manufacturers slightly increased prices to recover earlier losses.

The mixed pricing environment reflects a market caught between strong supply growth and rising raw material constraints.

Manufacturing Shifts and Trade Realignment

BloombergNEF also highlighted changing trade patterns in solar and battery markets. Midstream solar cells now account for a larger share of global trade, rising to 44% in 2025 from 25% a year earlier.

India’s manufacturing push is gaining momentum, with potential to become a major exporter as global production continues to diversify away from China. Turkey is also emerging as a competitive player.

In batteries, electric vehicle applications still dominate trade flows, but stationary energy storage is expanding rapidly, now making up 29% of shipments, a 64% year-on-year increase.

Western Onshoring Faces Structural Limits

Efforts in the US and Europe to localize clean-tech manufacturing are progressing, but BloombergNEF notes they are unlikely to create globally competitive export hubs. Many projects remain focused on downstream assembly rather than full value-chain production.

Several planned facilities are also facing delays due to weak demand and policy uncertainty, raising questions about long-term competitiveness against established Asian manufacturing centers.

Also Read: The Growing Need for ESG Companies, Sustainability, and Climate Solutions

Global Transition Becomes Security-Driven

Overall, the report suggests that clean-energy trade is increasingly shaped by energy security and fossil-fuel exposure rather than climate policy alone. Countries facing high import dependence may accelerate adoption if fuel prices remain elevated.

For policymakers and investors, the message is clear: Clean-energy supply chains are now a strategic pillar of global trade, sitting at the intersection of economics, security, and industrial policy.

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Source: ESG NEWS