Biofuel to Power 6% of Road Transport by 2030
Biofuel demand is expected to account for 6% of the projected energy requirements for road transport in 2030, propelled by both policy initiatives and upcoming project expansions, as indicated by data from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The IEA's December report, "The Role of E-fuels in Decarbonising Transport," estimates this 6% share to amount to 5.3 exajoules.
In 2022, the predominant usage of liquid biofuels was observed in road transport, and this dominance is projected to persist at 98% by 2030, as mentioned in the IEA's October World Energy Outlook concerning biofuels demand.
According to the IEA's October findings, biofuels represented 2.2 million barrels per day (b/d) of oil demand in 2022, accounting for 5% of the total road transport demand of 41.3 million b/d. Looking ahead to 2030, the IEA anticipates a biofuel demand of 3 million b/d, constituting 7% of the expected total road transport demand.
The IEA's December report, relayed by S&P Global, underscores the challenges of surpassing the 9 exajoule threshold for biofuel expansion. Achieving this would necessitate alternative feedstocks available in larger quantities that do not compete with food and feed production for land resources.
The report identifies promising new feedstocks compatible with existing technologies, estimating their potential at nearly 8 exajoules, which can be cultivated on marginal land or utilised as cover crops.
On a global scale, the demand for biodiesel is on a growth trajectory, forecasted to surpass 1.4 million b/d in 2025, up from around 1 million b/d in 2022 and less than 6,00,000 b/d a decade ago. Analysts from S&P Global Commodity Insights anticipate the bulk of this growth to be driven by blending in road diesel applications.
Source: Biofuels International
