• Energy, heavy industry, and transport sectors are responsible for 88% of total UK corporate emissions.
• Slowing climate action will increase future costs.
• Horizon, a forecasting model, shows how emissions are projected to change from 2025 to 2050.

Top UK companies are focused on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but not at the desired pace to meet global climate targets, according to a new report.

The report by the University of Exeter and J O Hambro Capital Management used a new forecasting model called Horizon. It is designed to predict changes in emissions from UK businesses from 2025 to 2050.

The model forecasts that emissions will continue to rise until around 2032 and plummet from 350 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent to about 115 million tonnes by 2050.

Though this is a steep drop, it is not enough to meet the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, notes the study. This will lead to the UK facing a “disorderly” green transition, where the shift to a low-carbon economy could be expedited, risky, and more expensive if climate efforts are put on hold.

READ MORE: Famous 1.5°C Climate Cap Set to Collapse in 5 Years, Says WMO

The three sectors primarily contributing to emissions are Energy Minerals, Process Industries, and Transportation, accounting for 88% of total UK corporate emissions. Not only that, UK businesses also have a global carbon footprint — they are responsible for around 88.7% of these emissions abroad through supply chains and international operations.

Though UK firms' global carbon footprint is on the rise, the nation has made substantial progress in bringing down domestic emissions by about 50% since 1990. This has been achieved mainly through the increasing use of renewable energy, which now meets half of the country's electricity demand.

The study covered 347 companies across 20 sectors, representing 89% of the UK stock market's total value. It used only Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions data and excluded Scope 3 emissions, as they are still not accurately reported, even though they define the largest share of a company's emissions. There needs to be efficient reporting and regulation in this area, reveals the report.

ALSO READ: AI Study: Old Scope 3 Methods Overestimate Emissions by 2,480%

The study concludes that halting climate action will bring severe climate catastrophes in the future. As a result, costs will go up, and there will be more damage and health problems, eventually pushing everything into the abyss. On the other hand, early investments in green technologies could reduce long-term risks, create business opportunities, and improve relationships with stakeholders.

For a more detailed view of the study, please click here.

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Source: University of Exeter