The £7 Billion Bet: Will Reform UK's Climate Denial Leave Its Heartlands Underwater?

Takeaways

• Approximately one in five homes (over 700,000 properties) across the ten English councils recently won by Reform UK are projected to face a medium or higher flood risk by the 2050s, according to analysis of national modelling.
• Despite governing some of England's most flood-exposed zones, Reform UK is actively moving to scrap local climate action, net-zero targets, and reduce flood-defence spending, a stance experts warn is "disastrous" for their own constituents.
• The climate-driven flooding across these areas could impose an estimated average of £285 million in annual damages by the 2050s, leading to a cumulative loss of about £7 billion if no new flood defences are built.

An exclusive analysis by Byline Times and Bylines Network has uncovered a startling contradiction at the heart of the new Reform UK administration: The very local strongholds where the party has recently seized control are projected to be on the front lines of the UK’s escalating climate crisis.

The data, based on the Environment Agency's national modelling, reveals that more than 700,000 homes across the ten councils now led by Reform UK are expected to face a significant flood risk within the next 25 years. This figure equates to roughly one in five households in areas stretching from the sinking coastlines of Lincolnshire and Morecambe Bay in Lancashire to the estuarine floodplains of Kent and the City of Doncaster.

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The Denial Gap

The irony is stark. While the national Reform UK platform campaigns fiercely against Net Zero and has pledged to dismantle environmental programmes, often dismissing climate science as ‘green hysteria,’ its newly elected local councils are already cutting or abolishing climate-resilience committees and rescinding climate-emergency declarations.

Experts, including MPs and major British environmental groups, have condemned this stance. Olivia Blake MP, Chair of the cross-party Climate and Nature Crisis Caucus, called the policy "cutting your nose off to spite your face," warning that politicians who reduce flood-defence spending "will face angry communities."

The Rising Tide and Rising Bill

The national forecast, based on Aviva's analysis, suggests that the number of English homes facing flood risk will surge by around 27%, from 6.3 million today to 8 million by the 2050s. Coastal exposure is intensifying fastest as sea levels rise, but inland surface-water flooding, where intense rain overwhelms drains, is also rapidly accelerating.

In the Reform UK heartlands, the financial toll is immense. The projected annual average damages from flooding could reach an estimated £285 million by the 2050s. Over the next quarter-century, without urgent investment in new defences, the cumulative economic losses are projected to hit approximately £7 billion. This figure represents the expected annual burden on homes, roads, and local infrastructure, not just a one-off disaster.

Coastal areas like Lincolnshire and Lancashire are highlighted as being particularly vulnerable. In Lincolnshire, where a local councillor noted that part of his ward has been flooded for three consecutive winters, about 22% of homes could be at risk by mid-century. Meanwhile, Lancashire is projected to see one of the steepest increases in the country, with over 23% of its housing stock potentially facing yearly flooding due to a surge in the Morecambe Bay area.

An Indefensible Gamble

Across the ten councils, including County Durham, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, and the two Northamptonshires, Reform UK's focus on short-term cost savings over long-term climate action appears to be a costly political gamble.

Anna Roguski, a campaigner for Friends of the Earth, stated that "These projections lay bare the real consequences of climate denial. Hundreds of thousands of families living in areas governed by a party that dismisses the crisis threatening their homes. Flood risk isn’t ideology, it’s physics."

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As the water continues to rise, Reform UK’s choice to ignore the science will test not just their ideology, but whether their new heartlands remain habitable without significant investment in flood defences. Residents in these communities face a simple arithmetic: A choice between political positioning and the urgent action needed to protect their homes and livelihoods.

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Source: BYLINE TIMES